Showing posts with label Technical. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical. Show all posts

Thursday, August 14, 2014

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

  8/14/2014 04:01:00 PM    


EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3331; (P) 1.3373 (R1) 1.3404; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3332 continues. With 1.3444 resistance intact, deeper fall would still be seen to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3209. But in that case, strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 1.3444 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3502 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. One interpretation is that fall from 1.6039 to 1.2329 was the first leg. Price actions from 1.2329 were the second leg, in form of a triangle. In such view, the fifth leg of the triangle pattern could have completed at 1.3993 already. In other words, the decline from 1.3993 is resuming the fall from 1.16039. Medium term outlook will now stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.3700 resistance holds. Break of 1.2755 key support level will raise the chance of an eventual break of 1.1875 low.






http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-daily-outlook-20140814222461/



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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

  8/14/2014 03:58:00 PM    


GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6634; (P) 1.6738; (R1) 1.6793; More...

GBP/USD drops further to as low as 1.6669 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained trading below 1.6692 key support will confirm larger reversal. And in that case, the fall from 1.7190 medium term top should target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282). On the upside, break of 1.6844 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Based on unconvincing medium term momentum, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside and bring reversal. Sustained break of 1.6692 will indicate medium term reversal and would turn outlook bearish for 1.4813 support.






http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpusd-outlook/gbp%10usd-daily-outlook-20140814222460/

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Friday, August 1, 2014

#GBPUSD Daily Outlook

  8/01/2014 05:28:00 PM    


Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, a medium term could be formed at 1.7190 already and the trend is reversing. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.6692 key support level for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.6928 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 1.7058 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Based on unconvincing medium term momentum, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside and bring reversal. Sustained break of 1.6692 will indicate medium term reversal and would turn outlook bearish for 1.4813 support.






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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

  8/01/2014 05:27:00 PM    


Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as the correction fro 0.9504 continues. Deeper fall could be seen to 0.9211 support. At this point, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9504 at 0.9181 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9355 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a medium term correction. Recent development argues that it's possibly finished at 0.8659 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.8544. Rebound from there would extend higher to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 first. Sustained break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0155 and above. However, break of 0.9080 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would likely extend the correction from 1.1079 to a new low.






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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

  8/01/2014 05:26:00 PM    


Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Further rally could be seen through 100% projection of 100.82 to 102.79 from 101.06 at 103.03, towards 104.12 resistance. Nonetheless, as the pair is still bounded in the sideway pattern from 100.75, we'd be cautious on strong resistance below 104.12 to limit upside. On the downside, below 102.59 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal yet even though bearish divergence condition was clear in weekly MACD. Attention remains on 100.61 key support level and decisive break there will confirm the bearish case. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 38.2% retracement o 75.56 to 105.41 at 94.00. In case of another rise, we'll focus on reversal as it approaches 50% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 111.62.







source
http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdjpy-outlook/usd%10jpy-daily-outlook-20140801221512/

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#USDCHF Daily Outlook

  8/01/2014 05:25:00 PM    


A temporary top is in place at 0.9106 in USD/CHF and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen but downside should be continued by 0.9034 support and bring rally resumption. Above 0.9106 will target 0.9156 key resistance next. Break will indicate medium term reversal. On the downside, below 0.9064 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9971 are viewed as a correction pattern. The break above 55 week EMA argues that it might be finished at 0.8698 already. Focus is back on 0.9156 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm this case and turn outlook bullish for a test on 0.9971 high. Meanwhile, break of 0.8855 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would extend the correction to 50% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8518 and below. In that case, we'll start to look for reversal signal below 0.8518 again.






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#EURUSD Daily Outlook

  8/01/2014 05:23:00 PM    


A temporary low is in place at 1.3366 and intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral for the moment. Some consolidations would be seen but upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3486 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3366 will extend the whole fall from 1.3993 towards 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3209 next

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. One interpretation is that fall from 1.6039 to 1.2329 was the first leg. Price actions from 1.2329 were the second leg, in form of a triangle. In such view, the fifth leg of the triangle pattern could have completed at 1.3993 already. In other words, the decline from 1.3993 is resuming the fall from 1.16039. Medium term outlook will now stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.3700 resistance holds. Break of 1.2755 key support level will raise the chance of an eventual break of 1.1875 low.






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Thursday, July 31, 2014

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

  7/31/2014 02:07:00 PM    


Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, a medium term could be formed at 1.7190 already and the trend is reversing. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.6692 key support level for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.6954 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.7058 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Based on unconvincing medium term momentum, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside and bring reversal. Sustained break of 1.6692 will indicate medium term reversal and would turn outlook bearish for 1.4813 support.





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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

  7/31/2014 02:06:00 PM    


Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.3415 minor resistance intact. The fall from 1.3993 is expected to extend to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3209 next. On the upside, above 1.3415 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3502 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. One interpretation is that fall from 1.6039 to 1.2329 was the first leg. Price actions from 1.2329 were the second leg, in form of a triangle. In such view, the fifth leg of the triangle pattern could have completed at 1.3993 already. In other words, the decline from 1.3993 is resuming the fall from 1.16039. Medium term outlook will now stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.3700 resistance holds. Break of 1.2755 key support level will raise the chance of an eventual break of 1.1875 low.





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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

  7/31/2014 02:05:00 PM    


Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 0.8698 is still in progress and should target 0.9156 key resistance next. Break will indicate medium term reversal. On the downside, below 0.9064 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9971 are viewed as a correction pattern. The break above 55 week EMA argues that it might be finished at 0.8698 already. Focus is back on 0.9156 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm this case and turn outlook bullish for a test on 0.9971 high. Meanwhile, break of 0.8855 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would extend the correction to 50% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8518 and below. In that case, we'll start to look for reversal signal below 0.8518 again.





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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

  7/31/2014 02:04:00 PM    


USD/JPY rose to as high as 103.08 so far and reached mentioned target of 100% projection of 100.82 to 102.79 from 101.06 at 103.03 already. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally could be seen towards 104.12 resistance. Nonetheless, as the pair is still bounded in the sideway pattern from 100.75, we'd be cautious on strong resistance below 104.12 to limit upside. On the downside, below 102.59 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal yet even though bearish divergence condition was clear in weekly MACD. Attention remains on 100.61 key support level and decisive break there will confirm the bearish case. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 38.2% retracement o 75.56 to 105.41 at 94.00. In case of another rise, we'll focus on reversal as it approaches 50% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 111.62.





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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

  7/31/2014 02:03:00 PM    


AUD/USD drops sharply to as low as 0.9302 so far. The correction from 0.9504 is extending and intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper fall could be seen to 0.9211 support. At this point, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9504 at 0.9181 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9384 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a medium term correction. Recent development argues that it's possibly finished at 0.8659 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.8544. Rebound from there would extend higher to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 first. Sustained break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0155 and above. However, break of 0.9080 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would likely extend the correction from 1.1079 to a new low.





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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

  7/31/2014 12:05:00 AM    





GBP/USD's fall accelerates to as low as 1.6894 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside. A medium term top could be formed at 1.7190 already and the trend is reversing. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.6692 key support level for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.6954 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.7058 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Based on unconvincing medium term momentum, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside and bring reversal. Sustained break of 1.6692 will indicate medium term reversal and would turn outlook bearish for 1.4813 support.










http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/gbpusd-outlook/gbp%10usd-mid-day-outlook-20140730221363/

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

  7/31/2014 12:04:00 AM    





USD/CHF's rally accelerates to as high as 0.9100 so far in early US session. The rise from 0.8698 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.9156 key resistance next. Break will indicate medium term reversal. On the downside, below 0.9064 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9971 are viewed as a correction pattern. The break above 55 week EMA argues that it might be finished at 0.8698 already. Focus is back on 0.9156 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm this case and turn outlook bullish for a test on 0.9971 high. Meanwhile, break of 0.8855 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would extend the correction to 50% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8518 and below. In that case, we'll start to look for reversal signal below 0.8518 again.










http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdchf-outlook/usd%10chf-mid-day-outlook-20140730221361/

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

  7/31/2014 12:03:00 AM    


EUR/USD's fall accelerates to as low as 1.3369 in early US session and break mentioned 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3397 target. Intraday bias is remains on the downside. Current fall should now target 100% projection at 1.3209 next. On the upside, above 1.3415 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3502 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. One interpretation is that fall from 1.6039 to 1.2329 was the first leg. Price actions from 1.2329 were the second leg, in form of a triangle. In such view, the fifth leg of the triangle pattern could have completed at 1.3993 already. In other words, the decline from 1.3993 is resuming the fall from 1.16039. Medium term outlook will now stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.3700 resistance holds. Break of 1.2755 key support level will raise the chance of an eventual break of 1.1875 low.










http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/eurusd-outlook/eur%10usd-mid-day-outlook-20140730221358/

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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

  7/30/2014 07:48:00 PM    


AUD/USD's consolidation pattern from 0.9504 continued is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. More corrective trading should be seen with risk of another fall. Below 0.9328 will target 0.9211 support and below In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9504 at 0.9181 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 0.9504 will extend the rise from 0.8659 to medium term fibonacci level of 0.9583.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a medium term correction. Recent development argues that it's possibly finished at 0.8659 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.8544. Rebound from there would extend higher to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 first. Sustained break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0155 and above. However, break of 0.9080 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would likely extend the correction from 1.1079 to a new low.







http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/audusd-outlook/aud%10usd-daily-outlook-20140730221284/

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GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

  7/30/2014 02:10:00 PM    

Although the British pound has retreated after rising to 1.7192 earlier this month and consolidation below this level is in store, as long as support at 1.6952 holds, prospect of another rise remains, above 1.7095-00 would signal retreat from 1.7192 has possibly ended, bring test of 1.7150 but only break of said resistance at 1.7192 would signal recent upmove in wave (C) of the (A)-(B)-(C) wave 4 is still in progress for further gain to 1.7250, then towards the equality projection level of wave (A) at 1.7333. Having said that, sharp move beyond there should not be repeated and reckon cable would falter below 1.7500 and risk from there is seen for a strong retreat in late Q3 or Q4.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that the major decline from 2.1162 top (9 Nov, 2007) is a 5-waver with wave 1: 1.9337, 2: 2.0399, extended wave 3 has ended at 1.3500 and wave 4 is an (A)-(B)-(C) correction which may bring further gain to 1.7180 but upside should be limited to 1.7333 (equality of wave (A)), bring decline in wave 5 later this year or in 2015. 

On the downside, a break of said support at 1.6952 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed and risk correction to previous resistance at 1.6845-50, break there would add credence to this view and bring retracement to support at 1.6693-99, below this level would confirm, then further fall to previous support at 1.6660 and 1.6600 would follow. 

Recommendation: Hold long entered at 1.7050 for 1.7250 with stop below 1.6950


Longer term - Cable's rise from 1.0520 (Feb 1985) to 2.0100 (September 1992) is seen as [A], the decline to 1.3682 is labeled as (B) and (C) wave rally has ended at 2.1162 (9 Nov, 2007) which is also the top of larger degree wave B with circle. The selloff from there is a 5-waver with wave 3 ended at 1.3500 (23 Jan 2009), wave 4 itself is possibly unfolding as either a triangle or an (A)-(B)-(C) and upside should be limited to 1.7333, price should falter below 1.7500 and bring another decline later. Below support at 1.6460 would suggest top is possibly formed, bring test of another previous support at 1.6252 but a sustained breach below there is needed to confirm, bring further fall to 1.6000, then towards support at 1.4814 (2013 low). Looking ahead, once this level is penetrated, this would signal wave 4 is over, then further decline towards 1.4228 support would follow, break there would signal the wave 5 has commenced for weakness to 1.3800, then retest of 1.3500 support.

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USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

  7/30/2014 02:09:00 PM    

Despite rebounding to 101.79 initially last week, as the greenback met renewed selling interest there and has fallen again, suggesting near term downside risk remains and marginal weakness below this month's low at 101.07 cannot be ruled out, however, only a drop below indicated support at 100.76-82 would justify our count that the wave c of major correction from 105.44 (wave V top) has commenced for retracement of early upmove to psychological support at 100.00 but reckon previous support at 99.57 would hold from on first testing.

Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding for gain towards 107.00 level.

Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5 to previous chart resistance at 107.00-10 but reckon price would falter below 110.00.

On the upside, whilst recovery to 101.60 cannot be ruled out, said resistance at 101.79 should cap upside and bring another decline. Only above resistance area at 102.27-35 would signa fall from 102.80 has ended and bring another test of this level, above there would extend the rebound from 100.82 to previous resistance at 103.02, break there would signal the fall from 104.13 has ended at 100.82 and encourage for gain to 103.75-80 but said resistance at 104.13 should hold from here. In the event dollar rises above resistance at 104.13, this would extend the rebound from 100.76 to 104.50-60 but reckon upside would be limited to strong resistance at 104.92 and bring another fall. Only a sustained breach above 105.00 would shift risk to upside for a retest of 105.44, break there would extend medium term upmove from record low of 75.31 in wave v to 105.90-00, then towards 107.00-05 (50% projection of 77.14-103.74 measuring from 93.75) but reckon upside would be limited to 108.00 and price should falter well below 110.15-20 (61.8% projection).

Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.



On the monthly chart, we have changed our preferred count that an impulsive wave is unfolding with major wave III with circle ended at 79.75, then followed by wave IV with circle and is labeled as a triangle with A: 147.64 (11 August, 1998), B: 101.25, C: 135.20, D: 101.67 and E leg ended at 124.14 to end the wave IV with circle. Hence, wave V with circle commenced from there and hit a record low of 75.31, however, the subsequent strong rebound signals this circle wave V has possibly ended there, hence gain to 107.00 and possibly 110.00 would be seen.

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USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

  7/30/2014 02:08:00 PM    

The greenback finally broke above previous resistance at 0.9037, adding credence to our view that the erratic rise from 0.8699 low is still in progress for retracement of early decline to resistance at 0.9082, a daily close above there would signal recent decline has ended earlier at 0.8699, bring a stronger rebound towards tough resistance at 0.9192-0.9201 later, only a sustained breach above there would reinforce this bullish scenario.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that early selloff to 0.9630 is an end of the larger degree wave III and major correction is unfolding from there with a leg ended at 1.2298 (Nov 2008 with (a): 1.0625, (b):1.0011 and (c):1.2298), wave b ended at 0.9910 with (a): 1.0370, (b): 1.1967, (c): 0.9910. The rise from there to 1.1730 is the wave c which also marked the end of wave IV and wave V has possibly ended at 0.7068.

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 0.8970-80 and bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. Only a break below support at 0.8898 would abort and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk test of support at 0.8856, a break of this level would shift risk to downside and suggest the rebound from 0.8699 has ended instead, risk weakness to minor support at 0.8800, however, downside should be limited to 0.8750 and support at 0.8699 should holdon first testing. A drop below said support at 0.8699 would signal recent decline has resumed as the wave c of larger degree wave B and extend the fall from 0.9972 top for a stronger correction of early major rise from 0.7068 to 0.8600 and then 0.8550.

Recommendation: Hold long entered at 0.8910 for 0.9110 with stop below 0.8910.


Dollar's long-term downtrend started from 2.9343 (Feb 1995) and it was unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) with (A): 1.1100, (B): 1.8310 (26 Oct 2000), then followed by another impulsive wave (C) with wave III ended at 0.9630 (Mar 2008). Under this count, correction in wave IV has possibly ended at 1.1730 and wave V already broke below support at 0.9630 and met indicated downside target at 0.7500 and 0.7400. The reversal from 0.7068 suggests the wave V has possibly ended and the breach of resistance at 0.9595 add credence to this view and further gain towards psychological resistance at 1.0000 would be seen later.

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